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Can AI Remain Safe As Companies Race To Develop It?

Artificial intelligence could bestow incredible benefits on society, from faster, more accurate medical diagnoses to more sustainable management of energy resources, and so much more. But in today’s economy, the first to achieve a technological breakthrough are the winners, and the teams that develop AI technologies first will reap the benefits of money, prestige, and market power. With the stakes so high, AI builders have plenty of incentive to race to be first.

When an organization is racing to be the first to develop a product, adherence to safety standards can grow lax. So it’s increasingly important for researchers and developers to remember that, as great as AI could be, it also comes with risks, from unintended bias and discrimination to potential accidental catastrophe. These risks will be exacerbated if teams struggling to develop some product or feature first don’t take the time to properly vet and assess every aspect of their programs and designs.

Yet, though the risk of an AI race is tremendous, companies can’t survive if they don’t compete.

As Elon Musk said recently:

You have companies that are racing – they kind of have to race – to build AI or they’re going to be made uncompetitive. If your competitor is racing toward AI and you don’t, they will crush you.
Is Cooperation Possible?

With signs that an AI race may already be underway, some are worried that cooperation will be hard to achieve.

“It’s quite hard to cooperate,” said AI professor Susan Craw:

… especially if you’re trying to race for the product, and I think it’s going to be quite difficult to police that, except, I suppose, by people accepting the principle. For me safety standards are paramount and so active cooperation to avoid corner cutting in this area is even more important. But that will really depend on who’s in this space with you.
Susan Schneider, a philosopher focusing on advanced AI, added, “Cooperation is very important. The problem is going to be countries or corporations that have a stake in secrecy. … If superintelligent AI is the result of this race, it could pose an existential risk to humanity.”

However, just because something is difficult, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible, and AI philosopher Patrick Lin may offer a glimmer of hope.

“I would lump race avoidance into the research culture. … Competition is good, and an arms race is bad, but how do you get people to cooperate to avoid an arms race? Well, you’ve got to develop the culture first,” Lin suggests, referring to a comment he made in our previous piece on the Research Culture Principle. Lin argued that the AI community lacks cohesion because researchers come from so many different fields.

Developing a cohesive culture is no simple task, but it’s not an insurmountable challenge.

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Elon Musk says all Superchargers will run on solar and battery power

Uber President Jeff Jones abruptly quit the ride-hailing company on Sunday. Recode, which broke the news, reported that Jones’ resignation was directly related to Uber’s recent pileup of controversies that included a culture of rampant sexism and harassment.

Jones’ tenure with the tech company lasted just six months: He left his role as chief marketing officer for Target in August 2016 to become Uber’s president. Recode, citing unnamed sources within the company, characterized Jones as a conflict-averse leader who determined that Uber’s problems were bigger than he had realized

“It is now clear, however, that the beliefs and approach to leadership that have guided my career are inconsistent with what I saw and experienced at Uber,” Jones said in a statement to Recode.

Uber co-founder and CEO Travis Kalanick confirmed Jones’ departure in an email to employees on Sunday:

The past month and a half have been particularly bruising for the company’s image.

Kalanick was recently caught on a dashcam video chewing out one of his own drivers and bragging about the company’s hard-nosed culture. The embarrassing video prompted the 40-year-old to release a statement saying, “I must fundamentally change as a leader and grow up.”

Kalanick’s behavior made headlines just days after Susan Fowler, a former engineer, penned an explosive viral blog post about her year working with the company. Fowler described Uber’s workplace as a sexist, aggressive culture where her complaints of being sexually harassed by her manager were met with indifference by the human resources department and retribution by upper management.

The post prompted Uber’s early investors to call on Kalanick to change what they said was the company’s “destructive culture.”

Around the same time, the company was also contending with drivers angry over various workplace and compensation issues ― and received little relief following a public and disastrous Q&A that Jones led via Facebook.

Prior to that, Uber endured the first of two #DeleteUber campaigns after users protested the company. The company deliberately turned off surge pricing during a taxi strike at major airports around the country. Taxi drivers were striking in solidarity with the thousands of protesters who had gathered to protest President Donald Trump’s immigration ban.

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Tesla surpasses BMW to become the 4th most valuable car company in the world

The short answer is that most car salespeople don’t earn a whole hell of a lot of money. Dealership salespeople average about 10 car sales per month, and earn an average of about $40k per year. If you do the math, that’s about $330 per car.

However, that’s not the whole story. There’s a vast discrepancy between great salespeople (who sell 20+ cars a month) and bad salespeople (who might struggle to sell 8 cars in a month). A salesperson who moves 20 cars a month is probably going to earn $6-$8k, while a salesperson who can only move 8 cars a month is likely to earn minimum wage.

There’s also the fact that the $330 per car average includes both new and used vehicle sales. New vehicle sales rarely pay $300+ commissions, while used cars can sometimes pay $1,000 commissions.

To sum up, I’d guess the average is close to $250 a car.

If you want to learn more, here’s how commission structures are setup at your average volume brand dealership:*

1. Almost all dealerships set a minimum commission amount, which is the least amount of money you can earn when selling a car. It can range from $75 to $200, depending on the dealership.

A car sale that results in the minimum commission is called a “mini” in the car business, and salespeople hate minis. For the most part, new vehicle sales are all minis. Unless you’re selling a hot model for sticker, you’re not likely to make more than $75 to $150 when you sell a new car.

2. Most dealers pay their salespeople a 25% commission rate, which is based on gross profit minus a “pack” fee. Pack is usually a few hundred dollars ($800) but can also be a percentage.

Example: You sell a used car for $3000 over cost. The commission rate is 25% after pack, and pack is $800.

$3000 gross profit – $800 Pack * 25% = $550 commission

According to the NADA, the average used car gross profit as of May 2013 was about $2400. However, this figure likely includes profits that salespeople never see…in addition to pack, most dealers charge ‘management fees’ and ‘inspection fees’ to their own inventory. That way they reduce commissions for salespeople and management even further.

I’d guess used car commissions industry-wide average about $300 per car.

3. Salespeople have a relatively low quota (8-12 units per month, depending on store and market). Salespeople who fall below the quota are hard to keep around, partially because they usually suck, and partially because they’re negative people who don’t make good money and consequently drag everyone’s energy down.

If you’re at quota, you get to keep your job. If you don’t, you’re at risk of being fired.

4. Salespeople who exceed their quota 20% or more often see an increase in their base commission rate.

If, for example, your quota is 8 cars and you sell 11, you may see all your commissions for the month increased from 25% to 30%. If you sell 15, you may see your commission go from 30% to 35%.